基于AHP-模糊综合评判法的矿井水害威胁程度研究

On the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of threatening degree caused by mining water floods

为了更客观合理地评价矿井所受水害威胁程度,针对矿井水文地质条件与矿井水害的复杂性和模糊性,采用AHP-模糊综合评判法建立评价模型。结合宁东矿区某矿井的水文地质条件、开展的防治水技术措施、基础资料和管理制度,选取影响矿井水害威胁程度的24个因素作为评价指标,利用AHP法确定各因素的权重,通过三角形隶属函数建立模糊评判矩阵,借助Matlab软件对矿井受水害威胁程度进行模糊综合评判,根据最大隶属度原则划分出矿井所受水害威胁程度的等级,结合矿井的实际情况提出了防治水措施。结果表明,AHP-模糊综合评判法可以对矿井所受水害威胁程度进行评价,评判结果符合矿井实际情况。

This paper intends to introduce the findings of our research of the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the threatening degree caused by the mining water floods. In view of the complexity and fuzziness of the mine hydro-geological conditions and unexpected flooding disasters, we would like to propose an improved method of AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on the game theory and the main steps of the said fuzzy evaluation method. In doing so, we have adopted the prevention and control measures of the mining water and explored the initial procedures and the management system, while searching for the 24 factors that are likely to influence the threat degree of the mine water disasters in combination with the hydro-geo- logical conditions so as to avoid too strong subjective weights. More accurately speaking, we have established the fuzzy evaluation matrix made up of the triangle membership functions, the aid of powerful Matlab matrix operation ability, and, therefore, working out the actu-al threat degrees caused by the mining water disasters by means of the fuzzy evaluation factors in accordance with the maximum membership degree principle. Besides, we have classified the mining water disas-ter threats into different degrees, and dealt with them in combination with the actual hydro-geological conditions, the practical prevention and control measures, the initial steps and the comprehensive man- agement system. The results of our evaluation practice show that through the case analysis, the method of AHP-fuzzy comprehensive e-valuation proves to be scientific and feasible for the evaluation results in accord with the actual mining water flooding situation. Thus, the method can serve as a valuable reference to the evaluation of such disasters.