人民币汇率低估了吗?——基于货币分析模型的实证测算

Exchange Rate Of RMB Be Underestimated——An Empirical Estimation Based on Monetary Analysis Model

在货币分析框架下建立了均衡汇率的决定模型,确定了决定均衡汇率的因素为国内外相对货币供给量、相对国民收入和相对利率。基于理论模型,选取1994年1季度至2012年2季度的数据进行了实证检验并测算了人民币均衡汇率和失调幅度。结果表明,人民币汇率水平在样本期内呈现高估和低估交替,且具有一定的修复调节机制,总体未显著偏离均衡水平,不存在大幅低估。因此,我国应继续坚持"自主性"的人民币汇率形成机制改革。

This essay established a model of equilibrium exchange rate under the monetary analysis model and identifies elements that determine the equilibrium exchange rate as relative money supply both home and abroad, relative national income and relative interest. Based on this theoretical model, this essay selected data form the first quarter of 1994 to the second quarter of 2012 , did an empirical estimation and then got the equilibrium exchange rate and disturbance amplitude of RMB. The result showed that the RMB exchange rate were overestimated and un- derestimated alternatively in the sample period, and it also had certain recover and regulation mechanism. The RMB exchange rate did not diverge from equilibrium level on the whole and it was not substantially underestimated. Consequently, China shall hold on ＂independent＂ reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.