FDI对经济增长的VAR模型分析——基于山东省的实证研究

An Analysis Of VAR Mode Of Economy Increase By FDI——Based on the Empirical Research of Shandong Province

通过建立一个VAR模型,对山东省GDP和FDI近20年的数据进行协整检验和误差修正模型分析,结果发现两者之间存在协整关系——FDI每增长1%GDP将增加0.41%,短期误差修正系数为3%。通过脉冲响应和方差分解进一步分析,结果显示GDP和FDI对促进山东省经济增长均具有显著的长期效应,但是对促进FDI流入的效应则不断减弱;FDI对山东省经济增长的贡献率不到20%,山东省经济增长具有较强的内生增长机制。

According to the consturction of VAR mode, after doing research on the cointegration test and error correction of the datas about the Shangdong GDP and FDI in the recent 20 years, it is conclued that there is cointe- gration between them. In other words, if FDI increases by 1%, GDP will increase 0.41%. And the short - term error correction coefficient is 3 %. Juding from the method of pulse response analysis and variance decomposition, it indicates that both GDP and FDI have a long - term effect on promoting the increase of Shandong economy, but the effect on promoting the influxation of FDI is consistently decreasing. The rate of FDI contributing to the increase of Shandong economy is less than 20%. And the strongly endogenous growth plays a major part in the increase of Shandong economy.