大学毕业生地区间流动预期对失业、收入及人力资本的影响——以哈尔滨市数据为例

The Graduated Migration Prospects’Effects on Unemployment,Income and Human Capital:Evidence from Haerbin City Data

本文简化寻找工作模型,分析由大学毕业生地区间流动预期(流动概率)引起的失业。研究表明,大学毕业生失业规模随地区间流动概率提高和收入差距扩大而增加,较高的流动预期会提高大学毕业生预期收入和经济落后地区人力资本水平。建议政府应积极引导大学生就业,为大学生就业搭建信息平台,提供信息服务和就业指导。打破限制劳动力流动的地区和行业界限,优化劳动力资源在地区和行业间配置。大学生在就业中也应适时调整自己的预期,避免求职时间过长导致的人力资本折旧和劳动力资源浪费。

This paper simplifies job - searching models, and studies college graduates unemployment that is induced by migration prospects（ migration probability）. The study shows that the scale of graduates＇ unemployment is increasing by the rising of regional migration probability and income disparities, higher migartion probability will improve expected income of graduates,as well as human capital in developing region. The study suggests that the government should actively help graduates to obtain jobs, build information platform for graduates to provide information services, and break geographical constraints to reach the optimized disposition of labor resource. The graduates also should frequently adjust their expectations in employment to avoid the depreciation of human capital and labor resources waste because applying for a job need a long time.