“污染避难所”在中国是否存在?——环境管制与污染密集型产业区际转移的实证研究

Do Pollution Havens Exist in China? An Empirical Research on Environmental Regulation and Transfer of Pollution Intensive Industries

我国地区间经济发展水平不同,环境管制的严格程度也存在差异,这种差异是否吸引污染密集型产业向环境管制较弱的地区转移?本文先从理论上分析了环境管制与产业区际转移间的关系,提出"污染避难所"效应在中国存在的可能性,进而利用1996-2010年间省级面板数据进行实证研究,结果证实了该效应的存在:从总体上看,该效应的显现存在一定的滞后,滞后1期时效应最明显;分时段的分析显示,随着我国环境管制强度整体加强和产业结构变化,"污染避难所"效应增强。同时原有污染密集型产业基础较好、区域市场规模小、经济发展水平较低的地区对污染密集型产业的吸引力加强。

In China, there are differences both on economic developing level and stringency of environmental regulation amongregions. Whether the differences attract pollution intensive industries to migrate to the regions with weaker environmental regulation？ This paper firstly analyzes the relationship between environmental regulation and industry transfer from theoretical point, which proposes that pollution havens effects may exist in China. Then the paper make empirical analysis based on provincial panel data from 1996 to 2010, which verify the effects. Totally, emerging of the effect has some lag. The most obvious effect appears lagging 1 year. Stage analysis shows that ＂pollution haven＂ effect has increased along with strengthen of the overall environmental regulation and industry structure change. Moreover, the regions with good pollution intensive industry foundation, small regional market and low economic development level show more attraction for pollution intensive industries.