中国地区二氧化碳排放的随机收敛研究——基于两类碳排放指标的再检验

The Convergence of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China:The Perspective of Stochastic Convergence with Two Emission Indicators

本文基于随机收敛的视角,采用人均碳排放和碳强度两类碳排放指标,运用多种面板单位根检验和单变量单位根检验方法,对中国地区二氧化碳排放的收敛性进行了实证检验。研究发现,两类碳排放指标的面板单位根检验结果均表明中国二氧化碳排放未呈现出全局性随机收敛趋势。同时,单变量单位根检验也表明没有任何一个地区的相对碳强度和相对人均碳排放序列呈现确定性收敛趋势。此外,两类碳排放指标在三大地区和八大地区内部均未呈现俱乐部随机收敛。本研究与结论为我国政府制定碳减排政策提供了理论支撑,同时也强调了我国碳减排政策制定的区域差异性。

The article adopts per carbon emission and carbon intensity to estimate the convergence of carbon dioxide emissions in China from the viewpoint of stochastic convergence by various of panel unit root test methods and univariate unit root test methods. The results show that both of two emission indicators do not present global stochastic convergence, the results of IPS, ADF - Fisher and PP - Fisher tests support convergence and Hadri test supports divergence. And univariate unit root tests do not get a consistent conclusion. Meanwhile, two emission indicators do not present club convergence within three areas and eight areas. The conclusions provide theoretical supports for the active carbon reduction policies, at the same time they also stress the regional differences in carbon dioxide emissions.