基于粗糙集理论的长白山火山泥石流影响因子权重分析

WEIGHTS ANALYSIS OF LAHAR'S INFLUENCE FACTORS BASED ON ROUGH SET THEORY IN CHANGBAI MOUNTAIN REGION

火山泥石流是最主要的火山次生灾害之一,火山泥石流的研究对于减轻火山灾害有着重要意义。长白山是目前我国境内保存最为完整的新生代复合火山,是我国著名的旅游景点。如果发生火山泥石流灾害,将给人类生命和财产安全造成严重危害,给当地经济建设带来巨大损失。本次研究根据长白山天池火山特殊的火山地质、地形条件和植被分布规律,得出了地形条件、地层岩性、植被条件等5个影响火山泥石流的主要因子,并利用粗糙集理论对这5个因子的权重进行分析,得出各因子对长白山地区火山泥石流的影响权重,其中地形条件和固体物源的影响权重最大,分别为0.296和0.222。权重最小的为底层岩性和节理密度。计算结果符合实际对火山泥石流影响因素的一般认识。本次研究可以为长白山地区火山泥石流的研究提供基础资料以及定量分析的参考数据。

Lahar is the main secondary disaster after volcano eruption. It is significant to study on the Lahar. Changbai volcano is the best preserved Cenozoic compound volcano in China, which is also a very famous tourist attraction. Once eruption, the Lahar would cause serious harm to human life and property safety, and a huge loss to the local economic construction. According to the conditions of volcanic geology, topography and vegetation distribution law in Changbai Mountain, we proposed six factors which had impacts on the Lahar, such as topography, formation lithology and vegetation distribution, and used the Rough Set Theory to analyze the six factors. Then, we obtained the influence weights of each factor on Lahar. The results are in line with the common awareness about Lahar. This study could supply the initial value and reference data for quantitative analysis on Lahar study.