中国能源消费与经济发展关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Development in China

2010年中国能源消费量位居世界第二,仅次于美国。文章选取最近20年中国经济发展的指标——人均GDP以及能源消费量建立了一个时间序列,并对之分别进行了平稳性判断、单位根检验以及协整检验。同时依据该时间序列建立回归方程,并对其进行误差修正和格兰杰因果检验的实证分析以及中国能源消费与经济发展进行的解耦分析,结果表明:能源消费量与经济发展具有长期稳定的协整关系,且格兰杰因果检验证明了能源消费量与人均GDP之间是互为因果关系的。能源消费与经济发展存在相对解耦关系。

Rapid economic growth in China has attracted people’s attention all over the world.While developing rapidly in economy there are huge energy consumptions.In 2010 China’s energy consumption ranks the second in the world,second only to the United States of America.A time sequence is established according to indexes of per capita GDP and energy consumption in recent twenty years.Then some tests such as stability judgments,the unit root test and the cointegration test are conducted on this time sequence,separately.And according to the time sequence,empirical analysis for establishing the regression equation and the granger causality test,error correction has been applied.Subsequently,decoupling analysis is done between energy consumption and economic growth in China,relying on which we obtain a series of conclusions.The results show that the energy consumption and economic development has a long term stability cointegration relationship,and granger causality test has proved that the energy consumption and per capita GDP are mutual causalities.There is a relative decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic development.The results of these analyses are of help to persons who deal with the sources of energy and economic development.