关于中日韩自贸区建设的理论与实证分析

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the China-Japan-ROK FTA Construction

中国、日本、韩国作为东北亚地区最具影响力的国家,在区域性贸易发展中起到了决定性的作用,为区域经济增长提供了强大的动力。然而,三国之间贸易互惠制度的缺失一定程度上制约了贸易发展的潜力。依照中日韩三国区域性贸易的实际发展状况,将经济规模、人口规模、运输距离以及贸易政策等变量设定为三国贸易发展水平的影响因素,进行回归分析,结果显示,贸易政策、人口和空间距离能够影响中日韩三国双边贸易,其中贸易政策是最重要的影响因素,中日韩三国自由贸易协定的缔结将促进区域内贸易的增长。

China,Japan and Republic of Korea are the most influential countries in Northeast Asia,playing a significant role in the development of regional trade.However,the absence of reciprocity system restricts the development.Based on the current situation of the China-Japan-ROK regional trading,the paper considers the main factors influencing trade as the scale of the economy,population,transportation distance and trade policy.By regressing analysis,it shows that trade policy,population and transportation distance can influence bilateral trade among the three countries,with trade policy the most significant.As a result,the foundation of the China-Japan-ROK FTA Agreement may improve the economic growth in Northeast Asia.