可靠性计算中加快蒙特卡罗仿真收敛速度的方法

METHOD FOR SPEEDING UP CONVERGENCE OF MONTE-CARLO SIMULATIONIN RELIABILITY CALCULATION

针对电力系统概率分析中蒙特卡罗仿真效率不高的问题 ,考虑到大型发输电组合电力系统可靠性计算的特点 ,采用改进的控制变量法来减小样本方差 ,综合考虑了影响抽样结果准确性和计算速度的诸多因素 ,如系统风险水平、收敛判据、控制变量的选择以及参数选定等 ,并将评估范围由系统指标扩展到节点指标。在 IEEE RTS系统的测试结果表明 ,所提算法严谨、实用 ,计算效果明显 ,具有良好的应用价值。

For overcoming the problem that Monte-Carlo sampling technique normally used in power system probabilisticsimulation has low efficiency, and considering the characteristics of bulk power system reliability. this paper uses controlvariable method to reduce the variance of reliability indices and presents a new algorithm to calculate indices of both systemand nodes. It considers the effects of system risk level. criterion of convergence, choice of control variable. and selection ofparameters. The computation result on IEEE RTS test system proves its effectiveness and feasibility