蒙特卡罗模拟在周期性公司收益法估值预测中应用研究

The Study on Application of Monte Carlo Simulation in the Income Approach of Cyclical Firms Valuation

资产评估中的收益法是对资产未来预期收益的预测,一般建立在对许多不确定性因素的分析基础之上,但事务中得到的评估结果也趋于单一化和绝对化。本文以某周期性上市公司的重大资产重组评估为例,探讨如何在收益法预测中加入不确定性分析以及通过蒙特卡罗模拟,得到带有概率波动区间的评估结果,并提出相关建议。

The income approach of asset valuation estimates the asset value according to the asset discounted future earnings or the capitalizing process. The forecast on expected future earnings is generally based on many uncertain factors, the obtained valuation results tend to be simplified and absolutized. This paper takes a listed company in China as an example to explore the way of inserting an uncertainty analysis into the prediction of the income approach and then to obtain a series of valuation results within a certain probability fluctuation range. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions about the Monte Carlo Simulation.