能耗强度与能源结构优化对内生经济增长影响研究

Influence on the Optimal Endogenous Economic Growth from Energy Intensity and Structural Optimization of Energy Consumption

本文在垂直创新模型框架下,将能耗强度和碳减排比例引入生产函数,将人们对气候变化的警惕意识引入效用函数,建立了一个动态的内生低碳经济增长模型。通过求解所建动态优化模型,找到了经济长期均衡增长的最优路径,讨论了能源强度和能源消费结构变化与经济均衡增长的相互关系,分析了各参数对经济最优增长路径的影响,比较了化石能源内部消费结构不变和逐年清洁两种情景下的经济最优增长路径的异同。长期来看,能源强度、二氧化碳减排速率与经济增长率有相互的负向线性关系,缩小反映化石能源内部消费结构的综合碳排放系数对经济增长有促进作用。非化石能源比例越高,低碳技术应用越广泛,研发成果对技术积累的贡献率越大,消费者对当前消费的偏好程度越小,人们对气候变化的警惕意识越强,则越有利于经济的低碳发展。

In the framework of a vertical innovation model, energy intensity and rate of carbon dioxide abatement are both all put into the production function. Alert awareness towards climate change is put into utility function. A dynamic optimization model of the endogenous low-carbon economic growth is established. Through solving the dynamic optimization model, the optimal path of a long-term economic equilibrium growth is found. The interre- lationship of energy intensity, energy consumption structure, rate of carbon dioxide abatement and economic growth are all discussed. The influence of various parameters on path of the optimal economic growth is analyzed. Paths of the optimal economic growth are compared in two scenarios of the internal structure of fossil energy con- sumption. In the long term, energy intensity and rate of carbon dioxide abatement have mutual negative linear relationship with economic growth. Reducing the comprehensive coefficient of carbon emissions which reflects theinternal structure of fossil energy consumption could promote economic growth. Increasing the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption, widely using low carbon technology, improving the contribution of technolo- gy accumulation from research and development, reducing preference to the current consumption, and strengthe- ning awareness towards climate change would be beneficial to promoting low-carbon economic development.