外贸货物运输需求量预测研究

Research on prediction of cargo transport demand in foreign trade

外贸货物运输需求量预测是规划内地对外连接的港口、铁路、公路的基础。本文根据外贸进出口统计数据特点 ,分省区建立了具有不同特征、考虑多种影响因素的外贸进出口额预测模型 ,分品类将进出口额转换为集装箱和散货运输需求量 ,进而转换为外贸货物运输 O- D量 ;在此基础上 ,应用多路径概率分配结合容量限制模型 ,在全国综合运输网络上进行外贸货运需求量分配 ,提出内地对外连接的港口、铁路、公路外贸货运需求量预测方案。

The prediction of the cargo transport demand is the basis for the ports, railway and highway planning between the inland areas and their outer counterparts. According to the importing and exporting statistic,the paper establishes the models of different provinces for predicting import and export quantities, possessing different characters and considering the impact of many factors. According to different categories,it converts also the import and export quantities to those of containers and bulk cargo transport, as well as to those of O D flux in foreign trade. Furthermore, based on the above theory, the paper makes use of the model combining multi routes probability distribution with volume limitation, and performs the distribution of transportation flux on integrated transport network. Finally, it renders a scheme that predicts the cargo transport demand in foreign trade concerning the ports, railway and highway transportation between the inland areas and their outer counterparts.