中国城市土地消耗强度区域差异的收敛性研究

Study on the Convergence of Regional Difference on Urban Land Consumption Intensity in China

研究目的:本文利用计量模型,分析近年来中国不同区域间城市土地资源消耗强度差异的收敛性,以揭示城市化进程中土地资源消耗的区域差异变化趋势,验证相关经济规律。研究方法:采用面板数据模型对中国各地区城市土地消耗强度的区域差异收敛性进行实证研究。研究结果:从2000—2011年,(1)全国、相对发达地区和相对落后地区三组的城市土地消耗强度均值在逐渐减小,其组内各省间的标准差总体上呈波动下降趋势,表现出σ收敛的特征。(2)相对发达地区组内城市土地消耗强度差异的缩小幅度要小于全国组及相对落后地区组的幅度,并且自2004—2011年7年间的σ值均呈现相对发达地区组>全国组>相对落后地区组的结果。由此说明,在现阶段相对落后地区组的区域差异收敛性最好。(3)相对落后地区与相对发达地区组间的人均GDP存在β收敛,并且随着人均GDP差异的收敛,相对落后地区与相对发达地区组间的城市土地消耗强度差异也是收敛的,其收敛速度快于人均GDP的收敛速度。(4)相对落后地区组各省份的η值都为正值,说明在相对落后地区各省份与相对发达地区的经济差异缩小的过程中,其城市土地消耗强度差异也在不断缩小。研究结论:近10年间,中国城市土地消耗强度在不断减小,并且其区域差异呈现出收敛趋势。

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the convergence of urban land consumption intensity by econometric model so as to reveal the trend of regional difference of urban land consumption intensity in the process of urbanization and verify the related economic theory. Panel data model was employed to study on the convergence of regional difference of urban land consumption intensity in China. The results showed that 1） The mean value of urban land consumption intensity gradually decreased in the whole country, relatively developed area and less developed area from 2000 to 2011, and the intra-class standard deviation fell volatile as a whole, showing the characteristics of σ convergence. 2） Comparatively, the narrowed gap of urban land consumption intensity of different provinces in the relatively developedarea was smaller than that in the whole country and the less developed area. From 2004 to 2011, the value of σ in the relatively developed area was greater than the whole country, and the whole country was greater than the relatively less developed area. It showed that the relatively less developed area was more convergent at present. 3） There was β convergence in the difference of GDP per capita between the relatively less developed and developed areas. At the same time, the difference of urban land consumption intensity between the two areas was also convergent although the convergent speed of the urban land consumption intensity was faster than that of GDP per capita. 4） The σ value of the provinces was positive in the relatively less developed area, showing that the gap of economic difference was narrowed between the provinces in the relatively less developed and developed areas, and the urban land consumption intensity difference was also shrinking. It is concluded that urban land consumption intensity gradually decreased in China in the recent ten years. Meanwhile, the regional difference tended to converge.