华北地区养老地产发展适宜性区域差异研究

Regional Difference on the Suitability of Developing Real Estate for the Elderly

研究目的:探寻中国养老地产发展适宜性区域差异的评价方法,为养老地产发展商寻找目标城市提供思路借鉴。研究方法:从人口与经济社会宏观发展水平、服务业发达程度、房地产市场成熟度以及居民消费能力4个方面入手,以16个华北区域城市为样本,采用系统聚类分析方法进行研究。研究结果:太原、呼和浩特、天津、包头、北京5城市已适宜发展养老地产,石家庄、沧州、廊坊、保定、邢台、邯郸、承德、大同、唐山、秦皇岛10城市是未来养老地产发展的潜在市场,鄂尔多斯目前及未来较长一段时间内不适宜发展养老地产。研究结论:养老地产发展商在选择目标市场区域时应综合考虑人口老龄化率、城镇化率、人均居住建筑面积、户均人数、恩格尔系数、人均GDP、主城区住宅均价、第三产业比重等区域因素指标。

The purpose of this paper is to look for the evaluation methodology for regional difference on the suitability of developing real estate for the elderly. Method of systematical clustering was employed based on four aspects, such as population and socio-economic development, service and industry development, real estate market maturity, and household consumption, and sixteen cities in North China were selected for empirical research. The results indicate that five cities are suitable for developing the real estate for the elderly, such as Taiyuan, Hohhot, Tianjin, Baotou and Beijing. And ten cites are the potential market of the real estate for the elderly, such as Shijiazhuang, Cangzhou, Langfang, Baoding, Xingtai, Handan, Chengde, Datong, Tangshan and Qinhuangdao, but Ordos is not suitable in a long future. It is concluded that some factors should be evaluated synthetically by the real estate developers, such as population aging rate, urbanization rate, housingper capita, average household size, Engel coefficient, GDP per capita, average housing price of urban area and tertiary industry proportion.