建设用地与社会经济关系的局域空间计量分析——基于浙江省69县市的实证研究

A Spatial Econometric Analysis on the Relationship Between Construction Land and Socio-economic Development:An Empirical Study of 69 Counties in Zhejiang Province

研究目的:采用局域空间计量学模型,对浙江省69县市的建设用地与社会经济之间的关系进行计量分析。研究方法:采用地理加权回归模型(GWR)揭示经济地理变量的空间异质性。研究结果:(1)2005-2010年间,浙江省69县市建设用地扩张存在显著的区域差异性。(2)浙江省69县市的建设用地面积的空间分布并非完全随机性,而是呈现出强烈的空间聚集特征。(3)人口数量、人均GDP、产业结构和城市化水平这4个解释变量对69县市建设用地扩张的影响差异明显:环杭州湾的30个县市的人口数量对建设用地扩张拉动力度最大;浙西南的10个县市,其人均GDP和产业结构对建设用地扩张具有较强的推动作用;城市化水平对建设用地扩张正向拉动作用地重心,由2005年浙西南丘陵山地的淳安县、龙游县等6县市转移到2010年浙东南沿海地区的温州、台州等13县市,同时负向抑制作用的区域也有所扩大。研究结论:不同区域建设用地扩张的影响因素有所差异,很有必要制定差异化的建设用地调控措施。

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between construction land and socio-economic development based on the data set of 69 counties in Zhejiang Province.Geographically weighted regression（GWR） model was employed.The results indicated that 1）From 2005 to 2010,regional difference in construction land expansion was significant in 69 counties of Zhejiang province;2）Spatial distribution of construction land was not entirely random.Actually a localized characteristic of spatial clustering occurred;3）The impact of four variables on construction land expansion,including population,GDP per capita,industrial structure and urbanization level,showed obviously regional difference.The driving force of population increase on construction land expansion was the largest in the 30 counties around the Hangzhou bay region.The impacts of GDP per capita and industrial structure on construction land expansion were strong in the 10 counties around southwest Zhejiang inland area.The core of positive effect of urbanization level on expansion of land had transferred from the 6 counties around the hilly area of southwest Zhejiang to the 13 counties around southeast Zhejiang coastal area.The negative inhibitory effect of urbanization level on construction land expansion was gradually stronger.It is concluded that the impact factors of construction land expansion are different.Therefore it is very necessary for formulating different control measure on construction land expansion.