上海产业发展、外来人口及城镇化关系研究

Study on the Relationships among Industrial Development,Non-local Population and Urbanization in Shanghai

文章基于上海市1978～2010年年度数据,在VECM框架下分析了上海第二、第三产业发展、外来人口及城镇化之间的长期均衡关系和相互动态影响。研究结果表明,上海第二产业发展是第三产业发展的格兰杰原因,而且是第三产业发展和城镇化的长期驱动力;第三产业发展对第二产业的发展有短期推动作用,并能够长期带动外来人口增长;外来人口上升和城镇化对第二、第三产业发展有短期内的促进作用和长期内的阻碍作用。本文对如何进一步推动上海各产业发展和加强城市人口管理,提出了一些政策建议。

Using the data from 1978 to 2010, and under VECM system, this paper examines the long term equilibrium and dynamic relationships among the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, non-local population and urbanization in Shanghai. The conclusions are： the secondary industry causes the development of the tertiary sector, and is the long term impetus for the tertiary industry and urbanization; the tertiary sector can only temporarily drive the secondary industry, yet it is the main cause for the non-local population growth, which, along with urbanization, can only contributes temporarily to industry growth. Some policy suggestions are made on how to further upgrade and optimize industries and how to better administrate non-local population and urbanization in Shanghai in the conclusion.