参照点依赖的北京市轨道交通票价弹性研究

Rail Transit Ticket Price Elasticity in Beijing Based on Reference-dependent Principle

本文新意在于,现有研究大多是在确定参照点的基础上判断损失厌恶的情况,在一定程度上忽视了参照点的异质性。本文是一种反向应用,由损失厌恶的程度判断群体参照点的位置,并得出轨道交通全体及各层次出行者对票价的预期。研究表明,轨道交通参照价格是多维参照在价格维度的综合,票价弹性不对称的现象在群体参照价格波峰处达到最大;轨道交通票价关乎出行者利益、轨道交通企业利益、政府财政负担、城市内各交通方式资源配置以及城市之间的公平等诸多问题,北京地铁基本票价存在上涨的紧迫性,但考虑出行者存在既有票价参照点依赖心理,上涨空间不大;改革一票制的单一票价制式势在必行,建议调整为包括计程票制和分时票制以及分区票制为主要形式的多元票价制式结构。

Most current literatures judge loss aversion on the basis of the determined reference point, they ignore the heterogeneity of the reference point in some extent. The paper, tries a kind of reverse application, judges the reference point position according to the extent of loss aversion, and obtains expected rail transit ticket price for both of whole and different levels. Reference-dependent reflects the travelers＇ expected ticket price and resulting metal feelings. Rail transit reference ticket price is multidimensional reference -dependent and comprehensively reflected in price dimension. Reference price has the characteristic of heterogeneity, loss aversion leads to the phenomenon of asymmetric ticket price elasticity, and the extent of asymmetric elasticity reaches maximum at wave crest of group reference price. Rail transit ticket price is related with a lot of factors such as travelers interests, rail transit firms interests, government financial burden, innercity transit models resources location, and intercity price fairness. Although rising Beijing subway basic ticket price standard is urgency, there is no large space due to travelers former ticket price dependency character. It＇s necessity to reform the price system of integrated ticketing and formulate muhiple tickets including metered fare, time sharing fare types and partition fare types.