人民币成为区域主导货币的可能性论证——基于两岸三地汇市信息溢出与协调联动的证据

Demonstration of the Possibility that RMB Becomes Regional Dominant Currency——Based on the Evidences of Information Spillover and Concerted Action among the Mainland,Hong Kong and Taiwan Markets

随着人民币汇率市场化改革推进及汇市日益发展成熟,内地与港台三地汇市间融合度与联动性不断提升。基于两岸三地汇市信息溢出与协调联动的证据表明:境内汇市信息主导力逐步增强;即期与远期汇市的信息导向日趋一致;市场化程度越高的汇市越能成为信息源,在价格引导和信息溢出方面亦越有主导强势;人民币国际化与汇率市场化相辅相成,人民币汇率市场化有助于三地汇市及区域经济融合,也能促进人民币成为区域主导货币。

With the advancement of market-oriented reform of RMB exchange rate and the maturity of domestic market of foreign currency,the integration and coordination are continuously enhanced among the markets of the Mainland,Hong Kong and Taiwan.Based on the evidence of information spillover and coordination of these markets,the finds are as the following: dominance of the domestic currency information gradually increases; information orientation of both spot and forward currency markets become more and more consistent; the market with higher marketization is more likely to be the source of information and with more dominance in terms of price guidance and information spillover; the RMB internationalization and the exchange rate marketization complement each other.The marketization of RMB exchange rate is conducive to the integration of the above currency markets and even the regional economies.It is beneficial to promote RMB as the dominant currency of the region.