草鱼鱼整片中热杀索丝菌的生长预测模型

Establishment and Validation of Predictive Model of Brochothrix thermosphacta from Grass Carp Fish Fillet

为了研究热杀索丝菌(Brochothrix thermosphacta)的生长动态,建立了5、10、15、20℃四种不同温度下草鱼鱼整片中的热杀索丝菌的预测模型。利用Gompertz方程获得热杀索丝菌的生长预测值,根据预测值和恒定温度下的活菌数,绘制实际和预测生长曲线,曲线重合度较好。利用平方根模型描述温度对最大比生长速率和延滞期的影响。通过计算准确因子和偏差因子对一级模型进行了验证,结果准确因子AF值均在1左右,偏差因子BF值在0.7～1.1之间。利用F统计量对二级模型进行验证,得到的P值小于0.05。得到的预测模型能很好的预测热杀索丝菌在草鱼鱼整片中的生长动态,为水产品的预报模型在实际生产和流通过程中的提供一定参考。

The present work aimed to characterize the growth of Brochothrix thermosphacta and establish predictive models in grass carp fish fillet at different temperatures （5, 10, 15 ℃ and 20℃）. Predictive growth curves were fitted by using Gompertz model, which showed good coincidence with the actual ones. The relationships between temperature and/Zmax or Lag time were well described by Belehradek model. The developed first-order models were validated by calculating average accuracy factors （AF） and bias factors （BF）, and both were close to 1 and ranged between 0.7 and 1.1, respectively. F statistical analysis was used to validate the second-order models established in this study, and P values smaller than were obtained. Accordingly, the proposed predictive models could accurately describe the growth of Brochothrix thermosphacta in grass carp fish fillet.