管理层和分析师的预测谁更准确?

Who is More Accurate,Executives or Analysts Predict?

文章检验了管理层和分析师对每股盈余预测的相对准确性。研究发现,分析师的信息优势存在于宏观经济层面,当公司的未来发展较大程度上依赖宏观经济因素(如GDP、能源价格、利率等)时,他们能提供更加准确的盈利预测。与之相反,管理层的信息优势存在于微观企业层面,当管理层的行为影响报告盈余而这一行为很难被外界预期到时(如公司存货积压、亏损、产能过剩等),他们的预测比分析师更准确。

This paper examined the relative accuracy of the management and analysts＇ s forecast on EPS. Studies have found that analysts have information advantage of macroeconomic level.When the company＇ s future development largely relies on macroeconomic factors（such as GDP,energy prices and interest rates,etc.）,they can provide more accurate forecast of the profit.On the contrary,we predicted and found the management have information advantage of microscopic levels,when it is hard to test the impact of behavior on reported earnings（such as company inventory backlog,loss,excess production capacity, etc.）,the management will provide more accurate forecast than analysts.