管理中美权势转移:历史经验与创新思路

Managing Power Transition from the US to China:Historical Experience and Innovative Approach

权势转移理论往往将大国实力的不均衡发展与霸权战争相联系,并认为崛起国对现有国际秩序的不满是霸权战争的根源,由此提出管理权势转移的必要性。美国与亚太战略再平衡相联系的战略东移,本质上便是对中美权势转移的预防性管理,这呼吁中国应采取有效的战略应对以避免被动式管理、反应式管理和个案式管理。一方面,美国的管理本身存在着源于权势转移理论的重大前提假设错误,为中国主动应对进而有效管理中美权势转移创造了机遇;另一方面,作为历史上少有的成功实现和平权势转移的国家,美国在19世纪末20世纪初对美英权势转移的管理经验,也为中国未来主动、有效地管理中美权势转移提供了重要参考。为避免由美国预防性管理中美权势转移而带来的涉中国的争端集中性爆发,中国针对中美权势转移的主动和有效管理战略应确立精细的阶段性战略和阶段间衔接战略,实现从"坚持韬光养晦"到"部分积极有所作为"再到"全面积极有所作为"的平稳过渡,最终迭致中美权势转移的和平实现。

Power transition theory links imbalance growth among great powers withhegemonic war,and holds that challenger's discontent with current international system is the root cause of hegemonic war,which calls for strategy of managing power transition.The United States' Asia Pivot strategy is a kind of preventative management of the power transition between the US and China in nature,which calls for China to develop an effective strategy to avoid passive,responsive and case-based management in this process.On the one hand,the US management is based on some profound mistaken views of power transition theory,which allows China to take the initiative in managing the transition.On the other hand,as the only case with potential to be named as peaceful power transition,the US management of the power transition between the US and UK in late 19th century and early 20th century has significant implications for China.Thus,to avoid an intensive explosion of frictions and conflicts with China resulted from the American preemptive management,China should develop a comprehensive power transition management strategy with deliberative phase-based strategy and connection strategy between different phases,smoothly transferring from 'keeping low profile' to ' selectively making a difference' to ' fully making a difference',finally realizing the goal of peaceful power transition between China and the United States.