谁拥有第二套房?——市场转型与城市住房分化

Who Owns the Second Housing:On Market Transformation and Differentiation of Urban Housing

以2008年北京、上海及广东三地城市家庭二套住房分配来重新审视市场转型,结果发现:个体人力资本与二套住房分配未达显著相关,但权力精英及单位后房改福利与二套住房分配呈显著正相关,说明转型期国家中心论比市场转型理论能更好地解释城市二套住房分化;家庭收入或借贷行为是二套住房分化的重要影响因素;房价越高则独生子女家庭(相对于非独生子女家庭)及父代为市县户口家庭(相对于父代为村镇户口家庭)的购房能力越强的发现证明了"家庭结构说";房价越高则经历过早期福利分房的住户的购房能力越强则验证了"世代机遇论"。这些理论发现显示制度、市场和家庭背景等多重因素在转型时期相互交织,共同塑造城市住房分配的不平等结构,市场与再分配正走向"强强联合",未来住房政策的关键在于破解"双强"及"双弱"现象。

Reviewing market transformation by distribution of the second housing that belongs to urban families who settle at Beijing,Shanghai and Guangdong in 2008.The results read:individual human capital is not significant correlation with distribution of the second housing,but the power elites and unit after-housing-reform welfare have a significant positive correlation,which indicates that nation-center theory than the market transition theory can better explain differentiation of the second housing distribution.Family income and lending behavior are the important factors that influence differentiation of the second housing;findings proved 'family structure view' that the higher house prices are,the stronger ability of purchasing housing one-child family(relative to the non-one-child family) and the father settling at cities and counties(relative to father settling at villages and towns) have;It verifies the 'generation opportunity theory' that the residents who experience early welfare housing have stronger ability of purchasing housing at higher prices.These findings suggest that multiple factors of system,market and family background which shaping inequality structure of urban housing distribution during the transformation period are intertwined,market and redistribution trend to 'the strong-and-strong union',the future housing policy lies in breaking the 'double strong' and 'double weak' phenomenon.