考虑混凝土坝位移动力突变盲点的安全监控模型

Safety monitoring model for concrete dam considering blind spot in dynamic mutation of deformation

针对坝体位移时间序列中出现数据跳跃的现象,基于动力学互关因子指数法与云模型理论,提出了一种能准确辨识大坝位移时间序列中动力突变盲点位置的诊断方法,并构建了考虑动力突变盲点的混凝土坝位移安全监控模型。基于不确定性动力系统对大坝位移的演化分析,综合运用相空间重构、云模型及小波分析等数值处理方法,从所辨识数值序列中的动力突变盲点出发,研究了对大坝工作性态转异进行预测诊断的方法。工程实例表明,该方法能找准对应位移的动力突变盲点,可避免动力突变盲点对大坝位移序列的不利影响,提高了大坝位移安全监控模型的可靠性和科学性。

For the phenomenon of data pulsating in the observed time series of dam deformation,a diagnosis method that can accurately identify the blind spot of dynamic mutation in the data series is proposed,and a deformation monitoring model for concrete dam considering blind spot of dynamic mutation is established based on dynamical cross-correlation factor index method and cloud model.On the basis of evolvement analysis on dam deformation using uncertain dynamic system,while comprehensively applying numerical methods of phase space reconstruction,cloud model,wavelet analysis,a diagnosis method to predict abnormality variation of working state of dam is established,from the aspect of identifying dynamic mutation blind spot in deformation series.Project examples show that the method can find out the dynamic mutation blind spot in observed data series and eliminate its adverse influence on deformation series,improving reliability of dam safety monitoring model.