上海市水产品消费需求的双对数模型分析

The Double Logarithmic Model Analysis of Aquatic Product's Consumption Demand in Shanghai

为了研究上海市水产品消费需求的影响因素以及不同因素贡献度的大小,以上海市1999—2010年城市居民家庭人均水产品消费量、城市化水平、水产品价格指数、替代品价格指数、居民消费价格指数、居民家庭人均可支配收入等相关数据作为研究对象,采用Eviews软件对上海市水产品消费需求进行回归分析。建立了包括城市居民家庭人均可支配收入、居民消费价格指数、总人口数这些影响因素在内的上海市水产品消费需求模型。另外,通过建立关于城市居民家庭人均可支配收入、居民价格指数、总人口数的模型,对这些影响因素进行预测,从而可以对上海市水产品消费进行预测。最终认为,要增加上海市水产品的消费需求,必须从提高家庭人均可支配收入、控制居民消费价格指数、发展水产品深加工业、加强物流体系建设以及加强水产品市场质量管理等方面入手,推动上海水产业持续稳定的发展。

In order to study Shanghai aquatic products consumption demand and measure contribution of different influential factors, according to data of urban household aquatic consumption per head, urban households per capita disposable income, urbanization level, aquatic product price index, succedaneum price index and consumer price index, made Shanghai aquatic products consumption data regression analysis with application of Eviews software. Then established Shanghai aquatic products consumption demand mode which included urban households per capita disposable income, consumer price index and total population etc influential factors. Besides, by building urban households per capita disposable income mode, consumer price index mode and total population mode, we can make forecast on Shanghai aquatic products consumption by forecasting this three influential factors. Finally, made a conclusion that it is necessary that increase household per capita disposable income, control consumer price index, develop aquatic processing industry, strengthen building material flow system and reinforce quality control of aquatic product market in order to increase Shanghai aquatic products consumption demand and promote Shanghai aquatic industry developing persistently and steadily.