铁路危险货物运输风险预警评价的研究

Study on Risk Pre-warning Evaluation of Railway Dangerous Goods Transportation

阐释我国铁路危险货物运输事故原因,分析铁路危险货物运输风险因素,包括人的因素、管理因素、设施设备因素和环境因素,构建铁路危险货物运输风险评价指标体系并应用模糊综合评价法对铁路危险货物运输风险进行评价。通过将铁路危险货物运输风险级别与预警管理相结合,开展分级预警管理,结合某铁路局危险货物运输实例进行评价,表明其危险货物运输总体风险正处于警戒向轻度危机转化的状态,建议开展铁路危险货物运输安全专项整治,最大限度地减少事故发生的可能性。

Through summaries the accidents reason of railway dangerous goods transportation in China in recent years, this paper analyzes the risk factors of railway dangerous goods transportation: human factors, management factors, facilities & equipments factors and environmental factors, so the risk evaluation index system of the transportation was established and the transport risk was evaluated by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Through combining the risk grades of railway dangerous goods transportation with pre-warning management, the pre-warning classification management was implemented and was evaluated by taking dangerous goods transportation of certain railway administration as example. The result shows that the aggregate risk of the dangerous goods transportation is in the situation of transferring from warning admonish into mild crisis, so the safety special rectification of railway dangerous goods transportation was suggested to implement as to minimize the possibility of accident occurring.