特有的加工贸易方式与通货膨胀传导——基于ADL模型的检验

Unique Processing Trade and Inflation Conduction:Based on the Test of ADL Model

中国特有的加工贸易方式与通货膨胀之间存在一条传导链条。本文从理论上分析了传导链条存在的机理,并依托1990～2012年的年度数据进行实证检验。检验结果证实了链条的存在,但是加工贸易顺差对通货膨胀产生的影响甚微。由此表明,将近年来的通货膨胀归咎于顺差,甚至中国特有的加工贸易方式是不可取的。

There is a conductive chain between our unique processing trade and inflation. The paper analyzed mechanism of the conduction chain theoretically, and tested the relationship empirically relying on the annual data from 1990 to 2012. The results confirmed the existence of the chain, but the processing trade had a little impact on inflation. It is suggested that the inflation is attributed to the surplus, and even ascribed to China＇ s processing trade is not desirable in recent years.