资本流动逆转对中国实体经济的短期影响——基于GTAP模型的模拟

Short-run Impact of Capital Flow Reversal on Real Economy in China: Simulation Based on GTAP Model

运用GTAP模型模拟中国发生资本流动逆转的情景,评估在不存在银行危机的情况下不同规模的资本流动逆转对实体经济的短期影响,验证了资本流动逆转影响实体经济的论断。研究表明,资本流动逆转会使中国社会的整体福利水平受损、GDP和居民收入水平下降、贸易条件恶化、总出口增加、总进口减少,同时生产要素和各行业的产出、价格、进出口也受到影响,且该影响会随着资本流动逆转规模的增大而扩大。

Based on Malcolm method,this paper uses GTAP model to analyze the short-run impact of capital outflow reversals with different scale on real economy in China when there dose not exist bank crisis,and tests some conclusions about the impact of capital flow reversal. It de- rives the following conclusions：capital flow reversal could reduce whole social welfare level,GDP as well as household income,and also leads to deterioration of trade term,the increasing of export and the decreasing of import,and the prices and outputs of the endowments and sectors as well as the exoort and imoort of sectors would be influenced,and the imoacts would enhance with the increasin~ of caoital flow reversal scale.