西藏公共服务支出与居民收入增长关系的协整分析与检验

Cointegration analysis and inspection of the relation between public service expenditure and residents' income growth

文章运用西藏1998～2011年统计的年度数据,对其公共服务支出与居民收入增长关系通过协整分析和格兰杰因果检验法进行探讨。实证研究表明,在99%的概率水平上,政府教育支出、文化体育与传媒支出、医疗卫生支出、社会保障支出、科技支出与西藏居民收入增长均存在某种正向的均衡关系,且居民收入增长是西藏各类公共服务支出规模扩张的Granger原因,反之则不成立。因此,确立并完善以增加西藏居民收入为导向的公共服务支出财政供给机制,千方百计增加农牧民人均收入至关重要,同时解决西藏公共服务支出的资金问题应是未来西藏财政支出结构增量调整的主要目标之一。

With the annual statistics data from 1998 to 2011 in Tibet, this paper discusses the relation be tween public service expenditure and residents income growth by cointegration analysis method and Grainger test of causality. Empirical research shows, in the 99% probability level, the governmental education expendi ture, cultural, educational and media expenditure, medical and public health expenditure, social security ex penditure, scientific and technological expenditure are all positive going with the growth of Tibet residents income, besides, the growth of residentsJincome is the Granger cause for expansion of all kinds of public serv ice expenditure in Tibet, and other than this probability level, the causality will be false. Therefore, it is ut most important to establish and perfect financial supply mechanism for public service orienting increase of Tibet residents＇income, and sparing no effort to increase per capita income of peasants and herdsmen. In the mean time, to solve the problem of funds for public service in Tibet is one of the main objectives to adjust increment of Tibetan financial expenditure structure in future.