山东省经济增长与环境污染的库兹涅茨关系及成因分析

Analysis of the Environment Kuznets Curve Relationship between Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth in Shandong Province

利用山东省1981～2010年经济与环境数据,建立人均GDP与典型环境指标关系计量模型,并利用灰色关联分析环境污染与经济发展的变化关系.结果表明:工业废水、烟尘和工业固体废弃物排放量与人均GDP之间的库兹涅茨曲线(environment Kuznets curve,EKC)呈现出正"N"型关系,而SO2排放量与人均GDP之间没有明显的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)关系;山东省环境污染的主要影响因素是GDP和单位GDP能耗.

The econometric model of relationship between per capita GDP and environmental indicators based on the economic and environmental data from 1981 to 2010 in Shandong Province was constructed, and the change relationship between environment pollution and economic growth was also analyzed according to the method of Grey Correlation Analysis. The results show that the relationship between per capita GDP and industrial waste water, dust, the emissions of industrial solid waste is the N-type, respectively. There is no obvious EKC relationship between SO2 emission and per capita GDP;the main factors of environmental pollution are GDP and energy consumption per unit of GDP.