长江流域上游气候变化的模拟评估及其未来50年情景预估

EVALUATION AND PROJECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER THE UPPER YANGTZE RIVER IN SRES SCENARIOS

利用WCRP的耦合模式数据和长江上游流域63个气象站点的观测数据,评估了全球气候模式对长江上游流域的温度、降水的模拟能力,基于A2、A1B、B1情景对长江上游流域未来50a平均温度、降水的可能变化进行了预估研究。结果表明:全球模式可较好的反映出流域温度、降水的时间和空间变化趋势,但模拟地面温度总体上低于实况值。三种情景下2011～2060年上游流域平均温度的增幅(相对于1971～2000年)分别为1.7℃、2.1℃、1.3℃。A1B、B1情景下区域内表现为一致的增温趋势,而A2情景下在嘉陵江流域出现降温的趋势。三种情景下平均降水的增幅分别为50.0、83.5、29.5mm;A1B、B1情景下降水增加的空间分布形比较一致。

Based on multimode data in Phase 3 of WCRP% Coupled Model Project and 63 meteorological stations in the upper Yangtze River, simulation capability of temperature and precipitation in the upper Yangtze basin was assessed. In the A2,A1B,B1 scenarios, the average temperature and precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin were projected for the next 50 years. The results showd that the global model could better reflect the basin temperature and precipitation trends in time and space,and the simulated surface temperature was generally lower than live value. The variation of average annual temperature were 1.7 ℃ ,2.1 ℃ ,1.3 ℃ in the three scenarios. The region showed a consistent warming trend in A1B,B1 scenarios,while a cooling trend in the Jialing River in A2 scenario. The increase of rainfall were 50.0 ram, 83.5 mm,29.5 mm,and the spatial distribution of precipitation was uniform in A1B,B1 scenarios.