中国经济增长的趋势与周期波动的国际协同

The International Co-movement of Trend and Cycle Fluctuation of China's Economic Growth

本文基于国际经济周期理论,使用共同趋势与共同周期的方法检验中国经济波动的国际协同,基于此分解中国经济增长与国际经济增长的共同趋势与共同周期,进而针对共同趋势与共同周期分别设定非线性因子模型,以此刻画国际共同冲击、国别冲击对中国经济波动的效应。研究结果表明:中国经济波动的国际协同包括趋势与周期的协同。近期中国、美国、欧盟、日本等主要经济体的经济增长趋势成分都处于下降通道中,周期成分虽有一定反弹但幅度较小。这一结果表明中国经济正面临着艰难的国内外环境,且具有恶化的趋势。中国经济波动的国际协同既有外国冲击对中国的溢出效应,也有国际共同冲击的作用。当前的国际共同冲击、外国冲击和本国冲击的综合作用,使得未来一定时期内中国经济增长速度将处于下行趋势中。中国当前保增长的政策效果主要取决于本国内部经济形势,但同时也与重要贸易伙伴国的经济形势密切相关。

This paper tests international co-movement of China＇s economic growth using econometric methods of common trend and common cycle based on international economic cycle theory. This paper also decomposes common trend and common cycle of international economic growth and set nonlinear factor model to describe the effects of international common shock and country shock to Chinese economic fluctuation. The results show that the international co-movement of Chinese economic includes trend and cycle. The trend of economic growth of major economies, such as China, USA, EU and Japan, had came into declining channel in recently, and the cycle of major economies had a certain bounce but the extent was small. These results suggest that Chinese economy is facing a difficult environment both at home and abroad. The international co-movement of Chinese economy comes from spillover effect of foreign shocks and international common shock. The composite effect of international common shock, foreign shocks and Chinese shock make China＇s economic growth rate will be in a downward trend in certain period of the future. To maintain the economic growth rate, Chinese should depended on their own internal economic polices mainly, but also close with the economic situation of important trading partners.