中国人力资本的区域分布及发展动态

Regional Distribution and Dynamics of Human Capital in China

本研究通过改进国际上广泛使用的人力资本综合度量方法——Jorgenson-Fraumeni收入法,结合扩展的人力资本Mincer模型,构建了适合中国数据的省级人力资本估算方法。同时,通过建立省际生活成本平减指数解决了人力资本的横向比较问题,使计算结果能够更真实地反映中国人力资本的地区差异。本文运用该方法估算了代表不同发展水平的六个省(市):上海、广东、河南、湖北、贵州和甘肃的人力资本水平,建立了跨省跨时间可比的分城乡1985—2009年省级年度人力资本综合度量指标及相应人力资本指数。结果显示总人力资本广东最高,人均人力资本上海遥遥领先,而贵州和甘肃均排在最后。计算结果定量描述了省级人力资本的分布及发展动态,并初步形成中国省级人力资本面板数据。

In this study, we modified the well-known Jorgenson-Fraumeni life-time income approach by incorporating the augmented Mincer model to fit the Chinese data in order to estimate human capital at provincial level in China. We also developed a living cost adjustment index to make the estimated human capital comparable across provinces. We estimated human capital stock from 1985 to 2009 for six provinces, which represent different development stages. The results show that Guangdong has the highest human capital stock, and Shanghai has the highest per capita human capital; however, those measurements are much lower for the less-developed provinces Guizhou and Gansu. Our results provide a mapping of human capital across provinces and years, forming a panel data set of comprehensive human capital measurement for future studies.