关于最优通货膨胀率的研究——基于面板数据法的实证分析

Study on The Desired Inflation——A Panel Data Approach

通货膨胀的控制与经济增长的稳定是一对短期的矛盾。同时,两者也都是宏观经济调控的重要目标,平衡两者的关系使得宏观经济平稳运行,则成为各国政府面对的首要问题。两者关系的平衡引发了学术界对最优通货膨胀率的讨论,即在不对经济增长产生显著的负面影响的情况下,什么水平的通货膨胀率是可以接受的?通过使用带有异方差的混合回归法,使用213个国家从1980—2011年的面板数据进行实证分析可以发现,最优通货膨胀率因人均收入的水平而异。具体来说,发达国家的最优通货膨胀率为1%～3%,而发展中国家的最优通货膨胀率上线可以高达10%。基于这个实证结论,各国政府应根据自身实际经济发展状况,确定其通货膨胀的控制标准。

The nexus between inflation and economic growth is a short-term contradiction. At the same time, both of them are significant indicators in macroeconomic regulations. To strike the balance between the two targets, which will promote the stability of the well-being of a country＇s economy, has become a serious challenge for any government in the world. The linkage between economic growth and inflation has caused a wide discussion in the academic field. In other words, what level of inflation would be acceptable if inflation does not have a significant negative impact on economic growth？ By employing pooled regression with the adjustment of heteroskedasticity to analyze data across 213 countries from 1980 to 2011, the re- sults showed that the desired inflation differs according to the income per capita of a country. In details, the desired inflation for developed countries is 1 % to 3 %, and that for developing countries are single-dig- it. Based on the results, we suggest that governments should ensure an appropriate inflation targeting standard with respect to its own economic condition.