基于时间序列的火灾形势的交叉预测

Fire Cross Forecast Based on Time Series

提出从横向和纵向两个方向分析火灾数据变化,研究其趋势性和季节性特征,并分别从横向建立火灾的月发生起数的灰色模型和回归模型,从纵向建立火灾的月发生起数的ARIMA模型,最后将两个方向数据合成区间,进行交叉预测。

It is valuable to study fire regularity and trend.Based on statistics of fire in China in the past years from the horizontal and vertical direction,the characteristics of developing trend and seasonal characteristics are found in fire regularity in China.Then we established the grey model and regression model from the horizontal direction,and the ARIMA model from the vertical direction.Last two direction data synthesis interval,we get the interval of cross prediction.