人民币实际有效汇率变动与我国内涵式经济增长

RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Connotative Economic Growth of China

国内的大量文献主要关注人民币汇率变动对我国整体经济增长的影响及其传导机制,却忽视了汇率变动对我国技术进步及全要素生产率增长的影响。本文通过对人民币实际有效汇率(REER)与全要素生产率(TFP)进行协整检验及回归分析,发现REER变动对TFP增长的影响很小,并且呈反向相关关系,即人民币升值不能使我国实现内涵式经济增长。

Extensive literature focuses on how the changes in RMB exchange rate of China affect China＇s economic growth, but most of the researchers ignore the impact of exchange rate changes on China＇s technological progress and total factor produc-tivity growth. Through cointegration test and regression analysis of the real effective exchange rate （REER） and total factor pro- ductivity （TFP）, this research shows that changes in REER and TFP growth is weekly and inversely correlated, which means that the appreciation of RMB was not able to contribute to the connotative economic growth of China.