铁路交通事故应急救援体系脆弱性评价方法研究

Study on Method for Assessment of Vulnerability of Railway Emergency Rescue System

脆弱性评价方法是描述系统及其组成部分的风险评估方法。本文提出基于群体灰色层次分析法的脆弱性评价方法,并运用该方法对铁路交通事故应急救援管理体系中存在的脆弱性问题进行研究,构建铁路交通事故应急救援管理体系的脆弱性评估指标,通过算例分析各脆弱单元的特征和分布规律,计算出需要加强的脆弱性单元。通过与普通层次分析法比较可以看出,群体灰色层次分析法是评估铁路交通事故应急救援预案和应急能力的一种更加有效的方法。

The vulnerability assessment method is a risk assessment method which describes the assessed sys tem and its components. In this paper the vulnerability assessment method based on the group grey analytic hi erarchy process, was put forward. The method was used to study the vulnerable points existing in the railway traffic accident emergency rescue management system and construct the vulnerability assessment index system of the railway traffic accident emergency rescue management system. Through analyzing the characteristics and distribution law of vulnerable units by an example, the vulnerable units in need to be strengthened were worked out. It can be seen by comparison with the ordinary analytic hierarchy process method that the group grey ana lytic hierarchy process is a more effective method for assessment of railway traffic accident emergency rescue preparatory schemes and emergency response capabilities.