热钱、大宗商品价格周期和中美金融抑制:美国近似零利率政策的后果

Hot Money Flows,Commodity Price Cycles,and Financial Repression in the U.S.and China:The Consequences of Near-zero U.S.Interest Rates

在美国实施近似零利率货币政策后,国际美元本位制运转出现失灵。新兴市场国家较高的利率水平吸引热钱大量流入,各国央行入市干预以避免本币急剧升值,但是却由此丧失了货币政策的独立性并出现通货膨胀。除非被全球银行业危机中断,大宗商品价格的大幅上涨和美元外围国家的周期性通货膨胀需要经历较长时滞后,才会传导至美国的核心CPI。由于美国国内银行和货币市场共同基金等金融中介受到金融抑制,零利率政策并没有刺激美国实体经济。与此同时,由于利率水平被限定在市场出清状态之下,中国同样遭受了金融抑制,尽管其形式与美国并不相同。

Under near-zero U.S.interest rates,the international dollar standard malfunctions.Emerging markets(EM) with naturally higher interest rates are swamped with hot money inflows.EM central banks intervene to prevent their currencies from rising precipitately.They lose monetary control and begin inflating.Primary commodity prices rise worldwide unless interrupted by an international banking crisis.This cyclical inflation on the dollar ’ s periphery only registers in the U.S.core CPI with a long lag.The zero interest rate policy also fails to stimulate the U.S.economy as domestic financial intermediation by banks and money market mutual funds is repressed.Because China is forced to keep its interest rates below market-clearing levels,it also suffers from financial repression—although in a form differing from that in the U.S.