基于模糊集合论的故障树分析方法及其应用

A Fault Tree Analysis Method Based on Fuzzy Set Theory and Its Application

传统的故障树分析方法是基于概率论的 ,其失效概率通常要根据大量的第一手数据进行估计 ,然而 ,实际上不可能收集到足够多的第一手数据。首先分析了传统故障树分析的不足 ,提出了一种基于梯形模糊数算术运算的故障树分析方法 ,阐述了将各种模糊数转换成梯形模糊数的途径 ,最后 ,给出了该方法的一个应用实例。结果说明 ,所提出的故障树分析方法具有很好的灵活性和适应性。

The conventional fault tree analysis is based on probability theory. Usually, the failure probabilities should be estimated from a large amount of data. In practice, however, it is not likely to collect enough immediate data. In this paper, the disadvantages of conventional fault tree analysis method are analyzed firstly, a fuzzy fault tree analysis method based on trapezoidal fuzzy number arithmetic operations is proposed, and the methods to transform various kinds of fuzzy number into trapezoidal ones are discussed. Finally, a fault tree analysis of the abnormal event in a real system is illustrated. The result shows that the method is flexible and adaptive.