空域航空器碰撞风险评估的建模仿真研究

Research on Modeling and Simulation for Collision Risk Assessment

空域运行风险评估利用预估碰撞风险概率来保证飞行间隔。为保障空域安全,提出采用缩小垂直间隔(RVSM)Reich模型的椭柱形改进模型,用以对RVSM空域碰撞风险进行建模分析。新算法首先确定评估空域、影响安全性的各参数间的关系和最大可接受的碰撞风险值等用以建立模型,计算出碰撞风险的发生概率;最后采用临界值比对方法得出当前的安全等级系数,以确定出标准。采用结构尺寸较大机型的实测数据进行仿真,并将Event模型算法与新方法进行比较。仿真结果验证了新模型简化算法的同时也提高了评估精度,具备可行性和优越性。

The risk assessment of airspace introduces the estimation of the probability of collision risk to guarantee flight intervals.For protecting the safety of the airspace,an improved RVSM elliptical cylindrical model based on Reich model was proposed to model and analyse the collision risk of RVSM airspace.The method firstly determines the assessment of airspace,the relationship between the various parameters that affect the security and the value of the critical risk of collision;followed by the establishment of the simulation model to calculate the probability of occurrence of the risk of collision.Finally,the critical value method was introduced to obtain the current level of security coefficients,and to determine if the standard is feasible or not.The data of larger aircraft were adopted for simulation experiments,and event model algorithm and the new method were compared.The simulation results verify that the new model simplifies algorithm and improves the evaluation accuracy.