中国货币供给变动与物价变动之间的关系——基于Morlet小波时频相关性分析

The Relationship between Changes in the Money Supply and Prices for China: Based on Morlet Wavelet Coherency Analysis

本文基于Morlet小波时频相关性分析方法,从时域和频域两个维度检验了近20多年中国货币供给变动与物价变动之间的关系。研究表明,自2003年起,中国货币供给变动成为显著驱动物价发生正向变动的重要力量;M0的变动对物价变动的长期影响尤为显著,而M1和M2的变动对物价变动的短期影响尤为显著;中国以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策具有系统性改进;最后,本文认为,保持一个较为合理稳定的货币供给增长率有助于中国物价水平的长期稳定。

On the basis of Morlet wavelet coherency analysis in time - frequency domain, this article investigates the dynamic relationship between changes in the money supply and prices for China over the past two decades. The empirical results are as follows： changes in the money supply have become the important force to drive prices up in China since the year of 2003 ; changes in M0 significantly impact the prices change in the long run whereas changes in MI and ME evidently impact the prices change in the short run; the monetary policy that using money supply as an intermediate target in China has systematically improved in the past decades; Lastly, the most important implication of this article is that it＇ s critical to keep a reasanable and steady growty rate of money supply in china for lone -run inflation stabilitv