东亚FTA的关税效应对我国农业影响的研究——基于CGE模型的分析

Research on the Impact of the East Asia FTA's Tariff Effects on China's Agriculture Based on CGE Model

东亚自由贸易区建设是各方关注焦点,其形成是趋势也是必然,在此过程中,关税效应无疑影响我国农业发展。文章首先分析我国关税结构现状和进口东亚国家分类农产品变化趋势,然后模拟中日韩和东盟建立东亚FTA情景,运用CGE模型分析不同部门关税减让对我国宏观经济,特别是农业部门产出、农产品价格、农产品进出口等指标的变化,同时还分析了不同模拟方案对我国地区产出的影响。结果表明,关税减让促进我国经济增长,并带来进口总量的增加;农产品价格普遍下降,除农产品降税对其产出有抑制作用外,非农部门降税可有效促进农业各部门的产出以及农产品进出口总体增长;此外,不同部门降税对地方产出增长存在较大差异,重工业部门降税较好促进各地方产出,但造成地区发展失衡。在关税战略实施中,需要处理好整体和局部以及效率和公平的关系。

The East Asia Free Trade Area is the focus of all the related countries, so its formation is an inevitable trend. In this process, its tariff adjustment will undoubtedly affect our agricultural development. The paper first analyzes the status of our tariff structure and the changing trend of our classified agricultural product imports from the East Asian countries, then simulates the circumstance of establishing the East Asia PTA between China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN, and uses the CGE model to analyze the effect of different departments＇ tariff concession on China＇s macro economy, and the effect of different simulation plans on the output of different regions. The results show that the tariff concession promotes our economic growth and increases our total imports; in case of the declining price of agricultural products, except that the tariff reduction of agricultural sectors inhibits their outputs, the tariff reduction of non-agricultural sectors advances the agricultural output and the total import and export amount of agricultural products. In addition, the tariff reduction of different departments has a different effect on the local output growth, for example, the tariff reduction of heavy industrial sectors better promotes the local output, but may result in the imbalance of regional development.