新疆产业用水变化的驱动效应分解及时空分异

Industrial Water Utilization Change and Spatial-Temporal Difference in Xinjiang

新疆是我国缺水地区,研究水资源合理利用问题有利于新疆提高水资源利用效率。本文通过基于拉斯拜尔指数的完全分解模型,构建产业用水变化的全要素分解模型,测度了2005-2010年新疆经济增长效应、产业结构效应与用水强度效应对产业用水的驱动效应,分析了水资源消耗的反弹效应,计算了各种效应对用水变化的贡献率,并对各种效应进行了时间分异分析,得出2005-2010年新疆经济发展极大地拉动了产业用水量,并且拉动力具有很强的刚性,而用水强度和产业结构则对新疆产业用水起到了抑制作用。新疆应该降低用水强度和调整产业结构以减少水资源的消耗;运用全要素分解模型测度了2005-2010年新疆15个地州经济增长效应、产业结构效应与用水强度效应对产业用水的驱动效应,并对各种效应进行空间聚类,进而对各种效应进行空间分异分析,结果显示:经济增长对各地州产业用水消耗表现为正向驱动效应,产业结构、用水强度对用水量的驱动效应基本表现为减量效应。各地州虽然效应趋势相同,但效应强度却因地而异。因此,政府需要根据各地州的经济发展、产业结构、用水强度的具体情况来制定相应的调控政策。

Xinjiang is a water-shortage province.Using the Laspeyres index and a complete decomposition model,a total-factor decomposition model was constructed to measure economic growth effect,industrial structure effect and water utilization intensity effect in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2010.Xinjiang is currently in the middle stage of industrialization,economic development has greatly boosted industrial water utilization in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2010,and the pulling power is very rigid.However,the intensity of water utilization and industrial structure restrain industrial water utilization in Xinjiang,the adjustment of industrial structure and reduction in intensity of water utilization restrains industrial water consumption strongly.The total-factor decomposition model was also applied to 15 cities in Xinjiang.The results show that economic growth is a positive driver of industrial water utilization for the 15 regions.Although the effect trend is the same,the intensity of effect varies from place to place.Therefore the government needs to establish corresponding policy according to the reality of each region’s economic development,industrial structure and intensity of water utilization.Each prefecture should introduce advanced water-saving ideas,technology and equipment to improve water use efficiency,and strengthen technological innovation and cooperation with the surrounding regions.