牧户响应三江源草地退化管理的行为选择机制研究——基于多分类的Logistic模型

The Ecological Protective Behavior Mechanism of Herdsman in Response to Grassland Degradation Policy in Sanjiangyuan

本文结合行为经济学理论及实证分析,探讨了三江源草地生态退化中牧户运用生计策略进行保护行为决策的框架,通过多分类Logistic模型分析了影响牧户选择限制放牧、生态移民和产业移民等不同保护模式行为的影响因素。结果表明:①年龄较大的、生计水平较低、较偏远的牧户被动地选择了机会损失和风险较小的限制放牧或生态移民方式,而年轻的、生计水平较高、离城市距离较近的牧户更愿意选择产业移民的生态保护方式;②三江源牧户是基于有限理性,而选择了福利损失相对较小的生态保护行为,这是牧户生计策略选择的结果;③着眼于增加牧户选择的机会和促进牧户可替代生计的多样化,以期降低牧户选择生态保护行为响应后的各种风险,以及提高牧户面对风险的能力,并有效地补偿牧户选择生态保护后所遭受的福利损失,是促进牧户积极主动地参与生态保护行为及区域实现生态经济可持续的关键。

The region of Sanjiangyuan is crucial to regional sustainable development,however in recent decades,grasslands in the area have been degraded by global climate change and human activities.This has led to a decline in source water and a direct threat to the environmental security of the Yangtze River,Yellow River and several south-east Asian nations.Since 2005,mitigation and minimization measures have been underway in the area,but their efficacy depends on herdsman responses,support and participation.Herr,we use behavioral economics theory and empirical analyses to discuss the influencing factors of herdsmen-bounded rationality and how herdsmen use livelihood strategies to construct their protection behavior decision-making framework in the degraded Sanjiangyuan region.We found that older herdsmen with a lower livelihood that live in remote areas tend to be more likely to select limited grazing or ecological migration pattern.Younger herdsmen with higher livelihoods and closer to cities prefer to the industrial immigrants or ecological protection pattern.Preferences by herdsmen are based on their limited rationality,which means that they always select the ecological protection behaviors that cause the least welfare loss.The herdsmen’s protective behavior strategies were a result of livelihood strategies selection.Increasing the patterns that herdsman can select and promoting the diversity of alternative livelihoods can reduce risk and improve their ability to face the risk from participating in ecological protection.