论地方政府“土地财政”对居民消费的影响——基于全国地级市面板数据的估计

The Research on Influences of Land Fiscal on Consumer Spending-Empirical Evidence from Prefecture—Level Cities in China

基于跨期消费与投资组合模型研究了"土地财政"对于居民消费的影响机理,并利用我国2004～2010年267个地级市面板数据进行实证检验。研究发现:首先,"土地财政"通过影响居民实际收入以及推高房价共同抑制了居民消费,并且随着"土地财政"依赖程度的增加,居民将相应地增大房产部分在家庭财富配置的比重;其次我国的"房地产财富效应"不显著,但是居民住房面积的增加有助于促进居民消费;最后,提高信贷利率和改善公共服务水平都将有助于提振居民消费。因此,减少地方政府对于"土地财政"依赖、建立居民合理分享土地增值收益机制以及弥补政府保障性住房的职能缺位是提振居民消费的关键。

The impact of the land finance on consumer spending has been researched by adapting investment portfolio model, and it has been tested by panel data of 267 prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2010. It is found that land finance restrain consumption expenditure by increasing housing price and reducing the residents＂ actual revenue. And gratually, residents increase the proportion of housing expenditure in family total spending. Although real estate has weak wealth effect, the increase of housing area promotes consumption expenditure. Moreover, the increase of credit interest and public service standard are good for promoting consumption expenditure. Therefore, to stimulate consumption, local government should limit land finance and adopt the measures to increase the wealth effect of real estate.