基于分位数回归模型的经济因素影响传媒产业发展研究

The Research of the Impact of the Economic Factors on the Media Industry's Development Based on the Quantile Regression Model

依据灰色关联分析技术,运用分位数回归模型,考量中国传媒产业发展处于不同分位水平时经济因素对其发展的影响。结果表明,市场化程度与中国传媒产业发展的关联度最大,科技进步贡献率与中国传媒产业发展的关联度较低;在中国传媒产业发展水平不断提升过程中,市场化程度贡献率呈U型态势,文体广播财政支出贡献率以及科技进步贡献率呈持续上升态势;而GDP的增加与传媒产业发展水平的增长呈负相关关系,中国传媒产业发展水平增长速度滞后于区域GDP增长速度。

With the using of gray relational analysis and gray relational analysis, the influences from economic factors to the development of China＇s media industry have been analyzed. It is found that the marketization has significant effects on the development of media industry, while technological progress has little effects on the development. And with the development of media industry, the trend of the effect from marketization shows as U shape, and the contribution from the fiscal expenditure and technological progress keep upward. Moreover, the growth of GDP is negatively related with the media industry development. The growth of China＇s media industry development level did not keep pace with the growth of quantify regional GDP.