川滇地区地震活动趋势再判断

Rejudgment of Earthquake activity Trend in Sichuan-Yunnan Region

川滇地区是中国大陆最显著的地震活动区域之一。结合该地区20世纪以来的地震数据,通过三元、四元和五元可公度计算、可公度系图谱构建及蝴蝶结构图分析,结果表明,在未来十年内的2015年和2017年前后川滇地区均有可能发生≥7.1级强烈地震,其中2015年的灾害信号最强。该研究旨在丰富可公度方法的灾害趋势判断案例,同时希望能为川滇地区地震灾害的监测提供一定的依据。

Sichuan-Yunnan is one of China’s regions of the most frequent seismicity.Combined with seismic data of Sichuan-Yunnan region since the 20th century,based on the method of commensurability information extract including ternary,quaternary and quintuple and the building of commensurability structure and butterfly structure,the result shows that,in 2015 or 2017 an earthquake with magnitude equal to or more than 7.1 is likely to happen in Sichuan-Yunnan region in the next decade,among which,in 2015 the disaster signal is strongest.This study aims at increasing the case of commensurability method and providing a basis for the earthquake detection of Sichuan-Yunnan region.