基于SVAR模型的金融支持对物流业发展的互动关联性研究——以福建省为例

A Study on the Interaction and Relevance between the Logistics Development and the Financial Support on the Basis of the SVAR Model——Taking Fujian Province as an Example

文章通过选取福建省1984～2011年之间衡量物流、金融发展水平的数据,运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型及脉冲响应分析方法,对物流业、金融发展规模和保险业发展之间的内在关联机制进行了研究。结果表明:保险业的发展、金融规模均对物流业的发展存在显著的Granger因果关系;来自保险业、金融发展规模上的冲击在经历一个短暂的潜伏期后,对物流业的发展带来积极的影响,然后逐渐消失;此外,物流行业对来自金融发展规模冲击的响应远大于来自对保险业的冲击的响应。最后,提出加强金融创新、设计符合金融与物流协同发展的模式以及加大金融对物流业的支持力度的必要性。

Taking the statistics of logistic and financial development in the years between 1984 and 2011 in Fujian province as the data for analysis,this paper studies the inter-relevance mechanisms among the logistic industry,financial development scale and the insurance development by applying the analytic method of the structural vector auto-regressive（SVAR） model and the impulse response analysis.The analysis result shows that there exists obvious Granger cause-effect relationship between the logistic development and the insurance industry development and financial scale;the impulse from the development of the insurance industry and the financial scale has positive effect on the development of logistics after a short period of latency and then this effect gradually disappears;furthermore,the response from the logistic industry to the impulse of financial scale is far more great than that to the impulse of the insurance industry.It is suggested in the paper at last that it is of great necessity to strengthen financial creativity,to design a model more suitable for the coordinate development of both the financial and the logistic development,and increase the support of the logistic development from the financial industry.