临夏地区黄芪种植气候区划与产量动态气候预测模型研究

Research on the Planting Climatic Regionalization and Yield Dynamic Climate Prediction Model of Astragalus membranaceus in Linxia Area

[目的]研究临夏地区黄芪种植的气候区划和产量动态气候预测模型。[方法]利用临夏州黄芪种植资料和同期气象观测资料,从影响黄芪栽培的温度、湿度、光照等主要气象因子入手,通过相关因子诊断、数理统计和多元回归方法,在黄芪生长的不同阶段筛选出经过0.01信度检验的气象因子,对临夏地区黄芪生态气候适应性和产量预测模型进行初步探讨。[结果]种植高度为海拔1 700 m以下的干旱山区、浅土层区以及年平均温度高于9.0℃、年降水量不足400 mm、≥10℃的积温为≥2 900℃.d的干旱高温区域,即主要代表区有永靖东、西干旱山区,东乡北部干旱山区、积石山东北部干旱区等小区域,不宜栽植黄芪,临夏其余大部分区域均可栽植黄芪。黄芪的不同生长阶段,从生长到成熟阶段划分的5个生育期(插秧期、茎叶生长期、花期、果期、夏播期)对气象条件的要求有明显差异,建立的各生育期与相关气象因子的预测模型的预测准确率均达75%以上。[结论]该研究实现了黄芪单产气象预测,为临夏黄芪大力推广栽培提供了科学依据。

[ Objective ] The research aimed to study the planting climatic regionalization and yield dynamic climate prediction model of Astraga- lus membranaceus in Linxia area. [ Method ] Using the Astragal＇s membranaceus planting material and the same time meteorological observation da- ta in Linxia, from the affected Astragalus membranaceus cultivation of main meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, illumination to start, the relevant factors diagnosis, the mathematical statistics and the multivariate regression methods were applied, through 0.01 confidence lev- el of meteorological factors were screened in the different stages of Astragalus membranaceus growth, the ecological climate adaptability and yield prediction models of Astragalus membranaceus were discussed in Linxia area. [ Results ] The arid mountains areas of the planted height at an alti- tude 1700 m below, shallow soil areas, and the drought high temperature region that the annual average temperature is higher than 9.0 ℃, annual rainfall is less than 400 mm, accumulated temperature of ≥ 10 ℃ is ≥2900℃ · d, namely main representative area Yongjing East, West drought mountains,drought mountains in northern Dongxiang, drought area in northeast Jishishan and other small area should not be planted Astragalus membranoceus ,the most of the remaining area can be planted Astragalus membranaceus in Linxia. Astragalus membranaceus different growth sta- ges, from growth to maturity division of five growth stages （transplant rice seedlings period, stems and leaves growth period, flowering, fruiting, summer sowing period） to the requirements for weather conditions have obvious differences,the prediction accuracy of prediction model between various growth periods and relevant meteorological factors is above 75%. [ Conclusion ] This research has realized the yield weather forecast of As- tragalus membranaceus ,and provides the scientific basis for the Astragalus membranaceus promoted cultivation in Linxia.