新疆某三甲医院2013年病床预测与分配

Bed forecast and allocation of a AAA-grade hospital in Xinjiang in 2013

目的 合理配置医院各临床科室床位,提高病床使用率,减少卫生资源浪费.方法 采用实际占用总床日数,病床使用率两项指标有机结合,利用著名黄金分割率,按照着眼近期兼顾过去的原则,将近期数据和历史数据分别赋予权重0.618和0.382计算预测床位数.结果 根据预测床位数与实际开放床位数的差值得出,目前全院临床科室的床位设置,需要增加床位数的科室有9个,床位数共计48张;需要核减床位数的科室有13个,床位数共计66张.床位数不变的科室4个.预测了2013年按比例调整的各科室床位数.结论 运用实际占用总床日数,病床使用率两项病床效率指标利用著名黄金分割率,是一种有效的病床预测和分配方法,医院临床科室病床数的合理分配,对于有效利用医疗资源,提高医院经济效益.对医院近远期规划的制订都有着十分重要的意义.

Objective To allocate hospital clinical department beds rationally, to improve bed utilization rate, and to reduce the waste of health resources. Methods Using the actual bed occupation number and bed utilization rate, with the use of the famous Golden Ratio, according to the principle of considering the present and the past, recent data and historical data were assigned weights 0. 618 and 0. 382 respectively to predict the number of beds. Results Based on the difference between the pre- dicted number of beds and the actual number of open beds, according to the bed setting of the hospital beds, nine departments need to increase 48 beds in all, three departments need to decrease 66 beds in all. and four departments don＇t need to change the bed number. We predicted adjustive number of beds proportionately in each department in 2013. Conclusion The use of the two indicators of the actual bed occupation number and bed utilization rate and the Golden Ratio was an effective method to fore- cast and allocate beds. Reasonable allocation of beds of the clinical departments is significant for the effective use of health care resources, for the improvement of economic benefits of the hospital, and for the formulation of the short and long term planning for the hospital.